Deterministic Physical Catastrophe Methodology
Delphi-1.0 replaces backward-looking static catastrophe tables with high-resolution satellite telemetry, multi-frequency physics, and zero-inflated Tweedie-Poisson severity distributions calibrated across 26 years of empirical loss data.
Empirical Telemetry & Feature Architecture
Multi-sensor fusion powers verifiable parcel-level rate indications with full audit provenance.
NASA FIRMS & VIIRS Thermal Telemetry
375m active fire detection bands calibrated against historical CAL FIRE burn perimeters from 2000–2026. Provides live spatial proximity scoring to active incident fronts and historical burn scar perimeter overlap within a 5-mile radius.
ECMWF ERA5 Climate & Fuel Moisture
Hourly reanalysis of surface temperature, relative humidity, and 10m wind gust vectors transformed into 100-hour and 1000-hour dead fuel moisture (FMC) curves, flagging critical dryness anomalies before regional ignition outbreaks occur.
USGS 3DEP High-Resolution LiDAR
1-meter digital elevation models resolving micro-topography slope gradients, ridgeline exposure, and canyon channeling effects that accelerate flame front propagation up to 4x on steep upslope gradients.
California CDI § 2644.9 Structural Credits
Granular parcel-level building characteristics including Class A non-combustible roofing, enclosed eaves, dual-paned windows, and 0–100ft defensible space clearances computed directly into statutory loss rate deductions.
Compound Poisson-Tweedie Loss Estimation
Traditional linear models fail on heavy-tailed catastrophe risks with zero-inflated loss claims. Delphi-1.0 combines a Poisson occurrence rate λ(x) with a generalized Gamma severity distribution Γ(μ, σ) with power parameter p=1.5 to calculate exact Expected Loss Cost (ELC):
Calibrated across 26 years of historical out-of-sample commercial claims from 2000 to 2026 to minimize underwriting loss variance while maximizing policy capture in defensible brush buffer zones.
Explore The Peril Engines In Depth
See how Delphi-1.0 physical models operate live across Wildfire, Inland Flood, and 5-Mile PML Solvency.
Methodology & Science FAQs
Telemetry frequency, historical calibration, and loss distribution physics.
Empirical Actuarial Science For Commercial Lines
Audit real-time satellite telemetry, compound Poisson severity curves, and CDI mitigation discounts in our interactive sandbox.